I’ve been a Buffalo Bills fan since 1963. I can remember sitting in my friend’s bedroom listening to the Bills/Boston Patriots (yes they were called that back then) when, with a minute or so left in the first quarter Larry Garron, a Pats running back, took a swing pass 59 yards for a TD. My friend’s older brother, so incensed at the play, picked up the transistor radio and threw it at the wall, breaking it into pieces. I never got to listen to the rest of that game (a 26-8 loss). I mention this because at least I’m old enough to remember the next two years when the Bills won back-to-back AFL Championships, beating the San Diego Chargers led by stars like Lance Allworth, John Hadl, Keith Lincoln and Paul Lowe. For those of you that aren’t old enough to remember those 1964 and 1965 teams you’ve been left with heartache after heartache by our beloved Bills. It’s not quite as bad as the Red Sox 86 year gap between titles, or even the Detroit Lions who haven’t won a championship since 1957, but the fact that we went to four straight Super Bowls and recently have been the pre season favorites makes it that much more difficult to season after season end in disappointment.
That said, we fans continue to support and continue to believe. This season, culminating with last night’s win against the Dolphins, is an encapsulation of what Bills fans have been going through for years. Lets revisit the season and last night’s win.
What started out poorly with a loss to the Jets only to turn into three straight blowout wins, shortly thereafter became a roller coaster ride. Losses to the Jags, Patriots, Cincinnati and Denver (all teams that didn’t even make the playoffs this year), combined with narrow wins against the Giants and Tampa Bay, put us in a hole that most prognosticators (including me) felt the Bills had no chance of digging themselves out of. With fans calling for the head of Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey (justified) to the same fans calling for the firing of Sean McDermott (unjustified it now seems), the Bills were 6-6 and heading to the toughest part of the schedule. After winning five of their last six they headed to Miami last night for a chance to win the division, secure the second seed and have home field advantage for two or more playoff games. The Dolphins were injured and had just been blown out by the Ravens 56-19. Things looked good for the Bills who were posted as a 2.5 point favorite in spite of being on the road. Before the game I was confident in a blow out win for the Bills. Miami’s defense isn’t good (especially without Chubb and Howard) and I felt the good weather would bring us “Good Josh” instead of the “Bad Josh” as we’ve seen lately.
Well we got a taste of both last night. Bad Josh dominated the first half. Bad interceptions, missing wide open receivers (Diggs on what should have been a 90 yard walk in touchdown), poor choices. After a 12 play 79 yard drive he throws a no-look pass directly into the hands of the Miami DB. Next drive, after moving 54 yards six plays, on fourth and two he ignored a wide open Knox and launches a rainbow into the end zone which was again intercepted. The next series ended in a fluke TD to Sherfield on a ball that ricocheted off a Dolphins defensive lineman’s helmet. Finally, on his fourth and last drive of the half Josh took the Bills from their own 25 to the Dolphins 11 yard line where the Bills lined up with no time outs left. Again, Bad Josh shows up. On a play that has to either be thrown into the end zone or to the sideline Josh throws across the middle to Johnson who gets tackled (no targeting call) at the two as time expires. This throw was inexplicable. A veteran QB CANNOT throw the ball there. An easy three points thrown away. Instead of being down 14-10 with the Bills getting the ball to start the third quarter we were down 14-7. The anger and frustration on McDermott’s face as the Bills headed to the lockerroom at halftime was evident.
So in a half Good Josh moved the ball down the field with ease. Once, however, he got into the red zone Bad Josh took over. The only TD was a fluke and could have easily turned into his third interception. Bad judgments and bad throws and we were down seven points at the half.
The second half didn’t start out any better. A strip sack on third and 13 from the Miami 21 cost us another three points. Five forays into the red zone and we had seven points. Thank God for Harty’s 96 yard punt return, the return of Good Josh in the fourth quarter and a huge interception by Rapp and we came away with a win. Let’s look at some issues:
1. Brady’s play calling: In the third quarter, the Bills had eight first down situations. In spite of the running game having done nothing to that point, Brady called for runs on first down six of the eight plays. The two non-runs were a seven yard completion to Diggs and a seven yard completion to Shakir which was wiped out by a holding penalty. The first down runs were predictable and were easily defended by the Dolphins which continually put Josh into a second and long situation. Good Josh got out of a bunch of these situations with good passes or by the use of his legs. Eventually, on a third and 13 Josh was sacked and fumbled.
With the way the Bills moved the ball with ease during the first half with short and mid-range passes, there was no reason for Brady to go to this first down run game. At least he could have used play action once or twice. Instead we were headed towards a loss but for the Harty return and momentum swing.
Over the past few weeks the “Brady Buzz” that we all felt when he replaced the fired Dorsey has turned into “Meh”. The offense isn’t clicking and he doesn’t seem to know how to get it clicking. The only reason we won the past few games is due to Good Josh making plays out of nothing. His goal line play calling has been brutally predictable. First and goal at Miami 8: run for three, pass incomplete and interception; First and goal at Miami 7: run for one and fluke TD to Sherfield; First and goal at Miami 3: Cook run for minus 2 and TD to Knox. IN THEIR LAST NINE TRIPS INSIDE THE 10 YARD LINE THE BILLS HAVE RUN THE BALL ON FIRST DOWN EVERY SINGLE TIME. Talk about being predictable on offense. On only one of those 10 occasions did the Bills run the ball on second down (Two consecutive tush push Josh runs). Every other time it’s the same: run on first, pass on second and third and hope for the best. Good offensive coordinators mix things up to keep defenses guessing. The predictability of this offense in yesterday’s third quarter as well as when the Bills are inside their opponent’s 10 yard line is inefficient at best and incompetent at worst.
2. McDermott: what can I say other than I was wrooooooooooooong (in my Fonzi voice). He has shown over the past five weeks an ability to adjust on the fly, to take away a teams strengths and the depth of his use of backups. He has shut down Mahomes and Tua on the road. He made adjustments in the second half of Sunday’s game against the Dolphins( who had over 100 rushing yards in the first half alone) resulting in 6 yards rushing in the second half. He showed aggressiveness at the end of the game forcing Tua to hurry throws and leading to an interception. Most of all I am impressed at how many backups are ready to play when injuries occur. From Dotson early in the season to Rapp, Spector and Jackson stepping in Sunday to make huge plays. Coaching isn’t just about game days. It’s also about preparation. McDermott prepares these guys “just in case”.
3. Gabe Davis: anyone else notice how much better our passing game was Sunday after he left with the injury? Sherfield, who had been invisible all season was a target that was actually used. Four targets and three catches for 24 yards. Shakir has become a star- 6 targets, six catches and 105 yards. This means he’s getting open for easy throws. Gabe just rarely seems to seperate from coverage. His catches this year seem to be difficult throws or great catches in coverage. He was targeted twice Sunday befor his injury with no receptions. His time here should be up.
4. James Cook: since his breakout game against the Cowboys Cook has rushed the ball 49 times for 154 yards (3.14 yards per carry), has three receptions for 12 yards, two fumbles (and one more just after his knee hit the ground)and two dropped passes both of which would have been touchdowns. This year he has four fumbles, five huge drops and an inconsistency that must be evaluated. Maybe the lack of production has to do with the predictability of his usage (first down runs) but his dropped pass rate of almost 10% (5 drops on 55 targets) is one of the highest in the league. His play reminds me a lot of Gabe Davis Davis makes some unbelievable catches yet drops many easy balls. Cook has shown he can catch the difficult throws (Cowboys TD catch) yet he drops easy balls like the one Sunday which would have been a TD as well as earlier season drops which would have been TDs.
On to Sunday at 1:00 v Steelers. I’m a bit concerned about the weather. It’s supposed to be very cold. weather can make offenses much more run dependent. Josh has not been great in bad weather lately. Steelers have a very good running attack. I predict a closer game than expected but Bills prevail 17-14.