Well it all comes down to one game. Win and they are in. Lose and most likely they are out. with Baltimore having locked up the #1 seed and having nothing to play for next week, Pittsburgh should win. Same with Jacksonville going to play a bad Tennessee team. We need to win. To do so the Bills will have to play a lot better than they have over the past two weeks. In addition, Brady has to figure out this offense quickly. All the praise he received the first few weeks after his promotion has evaporated quickly given the offense’s lack of production in recent weeks. Let’s look at the issues:
1. Stefon Diggs: It’s almost like a “where’s waldo” strip. Where has he been the past six weeks? Why is he only playing 60% of the snaps on offense? Why does he seem to come out of the game after every pass play? Why is his target rate and distance of target down over 20% over the past six games? Why do they continue to think that these “bubble screens” to him are an effective way of getting him involved in the offense? I have no answers other than to say that there is clearly something rotten in Denmark. Either he and Josh are in a bad place or Brady isn’t experienced enough to be able to figure out routes for him to run. Either way there is a huge issue that needs to be addressed immediately.
2. Gabe Davis’s usage: again, it’s deja vu all over again. four great weeks and five bad weeks. After a four reception, 130 yard game last week he gets three targets, two catches (one of which was for a huge 1st down), and 21 measly yards. Diggs was targeted seven times and only had 26 yards. We have two wide receivers with a stud QB who only get 10 targets, combined, in a game at home against a four win team? WTF!!!!
3. Joe Brady: see above. Also we really have to start looking into his play calling. Early in the season I was adamant that the Bills needed to run hurry up more times in a game to get Josh rolling. It worked. Now, however, its back to the same old shit. Slow offense. Snap the ball with 1 second left on the clock. Few downfield passes. Bubble screens. No successful screen passes. No slants where a receiver gets the ball in stride and can run after catch. To top it all off, this past week against NE the Bills have a 13 point lead and are faced with a third and one the first play of the 4th quarter at their own 37. What play has worked EVERY SINGLE TIME THIS YEAR in this situation? The Josh Allen tush push. What play didn’t work all season and may have been one of the reasons Dorsey was fired? The handoff to Murray five yards deep. What play does Brady call at this crucial point of the game where a score, for all intents and purposes ends the game? The Murray handoff for no gain and a punt. Why do these guys have to think that they need to outsmart an opponent? Why can’t they just keep it simple and do what works in this situation 100% of the time? Its just arrogance and stubbornness.
Brady needs to figure out this offense quickly and get it back on track now. Josh hasn’t been “Josh” for weeks now. He didn’t need to be against Dallas and wasn’t himself against the Chargers (until he went into hurry up mode at the end of the game…hmmm, sounds familiar) and was clearly off v. NE. He’s throwing off his back foot too often. He rarely throws quick slants that are the bread and butter of most good quarterbacks. Everything looks like it’s a gamble. Deep balls which get intercepted on 1st downs. What has happened to James Cook? No targets v the Chargers and one catch for -4 yards v NE? He’s a huge weapon out of the backfield-use him.
That’s why I’d open up against an injury depleted Dolphin defense (No Chubb or Howard) in the hurry up. Get Josh a few quick easy completions. Use the pass to set up the run. Get Diggs and Davis in the game early. Diggs needs to suck it up and play more than 60% of snaps this week. Ha can’t be on the sidelines on third downs like he has been. Sherfield shouldn’t even see the ball. Diggs, Davis, Cook, Kincaid and Shakir all day long. Josh should throw the ball 40 times this week. Miami’s pass defense sucks (as was evident by Lamar Jackson’s 5 TD passes last week as well as the Bills 48 points earlier in the year).
4. McDermott’s defense: thank God for the way they’ve been playing. 4 turnovers and a TD. ed Oliver is a monster. Douglas is a beast. Bernard makes the loss of Terrel Edmunds look like a Godsend. The defense has won a number of games this year. I still worry about what happens late in games but overall he’s done a great job considering the injuries and defections.
Prediction: Bills 31-17. Go Bills