This is a tough one for me. Looking back on the beginning of the season, most people believed we were in a rebuilding year. Many had the Jets and the Dolphins finishing above us. Many had us at or around .500 on the season. Very few had us winning the division, beating the Broncos and Ravens and getting to the AFC Championship game. All-in-all, it was a very successful season. That said, it doesn’t take away the sting of another loss to the Chiefs, in a game we easily could have won, and in a game where we again got out-coached and out refereed.
Let’s look at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter to start. Bills are up 22-21 with the ball at their own 30. Cook gains nine on first down. After Davis loses one and Josh gets stuffed on a tush push, Josh gets the first on his third tush push of the game. Now it’s 1st and ten at the 50. Cook gets two, Shakir gets five. On third and three Josh hits Kincaid who is unbelievably marked short of the first down. Replays clearly showed his knees didn’t touch down and he clearly gained enough for the first down. Instead of throwing the challenge flag on what should have been an easy reversal, McDermott/Brady hurry up to the line to run another (4th of the day and 2/3 were unsuccessful) tush push. The problems were three fold: 1. McDermott didn’t have time to decide whether to challenge the Kincaid spot; 2. The Chiefs knew exactly where Josh was going to run; and, most importantly 3. The Bills didn’t have their tush push team on the field as they went hurry-up. No Anderson. No Gilliam. Instead there was Ty Johnson and Kincaid, two undersized guys trying to push a 245 lb. guy against 330 + Lb. guys. Guess what? It didn’t work (or at least the referee who didn’t have a view of the ball determined: it was amazing how the referee who did have a view of the ball marked Josh ahead of the first down line but he was somehow overruled by the guy who was blocked by Josh’s back from seeing the ball). We can blame the refs on both situation. That said, you need to take it out of the ref’s hands, especially in KC against the Chiefs. We had already seen how they were calling this game when they gave Worthy a catch instead of a Bishop Interception or at least an incompletion as the ball clearly moved when they hit the ground. Instead, McDermott choked again in a big time situation.
After tying the game 29-29 and after the Chiefs kicked a FG with 3:33 left in the game to take a three point lead, the Bills got the ball at their own 30 yard line with a chance to win the game. At this point of the game James Cook had 85 yards rushing (6.5 yards per carry) and two touchdowns as well as three catches for 39 yards in the game. In the second half, Cook was averaging over nine yards per touch. The Chiefs were at a loss in how to control him. So what does Brady do? He keeps Cook on the sideline for the final Bills drive of the season. Ty Johnson starts with a loss of one and Josh scrambles for a first down. The next two throws are incomplete. Now it’s third and ten. Time to dial something up. What is the call?-a screen pass to Amari Cooper. WTF??? A screen pass at the line of scrimmage? Did Brady really think that was getting ten yards? We all saw what happened at the end. Spagnola, who consistently makes the right call against the Bills, blitzes a cornerback who isn’t picked up and Josh is forced to throw up a prayer which is typically dropped by our former first round pick (who we traded up to get) and season over. Where was Cook? When in God’s name would you take him out of the game at this point in the season? Inexcusable.
Looking back on the season there were plenty of highs and a few lows. The lows, however, kept repeating themselves. From the end the Houston game (three pass plays from their own3) to the end of the Rams game (and the stupid usage of a time out) to just before halftime in the Lions game when they shot-gunned Josh on 3rd and goal from the one) to last week against the Ravens (where on third and goal from the two they refused to tush push Josh and kicked a FG instead which allowed the Ravens to almost tie the game), situational football just seems to go over the heads of McDermott and Brady. In addition, for being such a defensive mastermind, McDermott/Babich sure couldn’t figure out how to stop good offenses through out the year. The Rams, the Lions, the Ravens and most importantly the Chiefs offenses flourished against our defense. Whey is it that Spagnola was able to install a defense which, for the most part stopped Josh from running yet we were unable to stop Mahomes from doing the same thing? It’s coaching.
Lastly, we need to look at the talent brought in by Beane over the past few years. A huge miss on Kair Elam; drafts of Singletary , Moss, Cook and Davis in consecutive years; the inability to get Josh a true #1 WR last year and the drafting of Keon Coleman. I was screaming before last year’s draft for the Bills to trade up to get a true #1 WR. Getting a true #1 on his rookie contract is almost as good as getting a true #1 QB on their rookie deal. We all see what true #1 WR’s like Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, etc… are getting. $30-35 million a year. A WR on his rookie deal make a fraction of that thus allowing that extra cash to be spent elsewhere. This past year’s draft had some of the best WR talent in years. Harrison, Jr., Nabers and Odunze were can’t miss guys. Yes we would have had to give up draft capital to go up and get them but their upside was worth it. The second tier guys like Brian Thomas wouldn’t have cost nearly as much. At 6’3” and running a 4.33 40, Thomas was the perfect receiver for the Bills offense. A guy who could stretch the field and gain separation, he was exactly what the Bills lacked. rather than trading up for him ( Thomas finished the season with 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns) the Bills traded down to select Coleman. Now don’t get me wrong, Coleman is a fine receiver. Maybe even a future #2, but nobody projected him as a #1 which is what this offense really needs. not only did we trade down but we gave the Chiefs the opportunity to draft James Worthy who absolutely killed us Sunday. Apropos if nothing. The Bills are now again in need of a #1. Tee Higgins will cost us $30 Million a year. Had we drafted Thomas (or Worthy, or McConkey) we wouldn’t be in this position again where we have to overpay.
This gets me back to Brady. We have Cook/Johnson/Davis which proved to be a good if not great RB group. We have a guy that we traded up to get in the first round in Kincaid who has been close to invisible most of his first two years in the league. We picked up Amari Cooper during the season to be our #1 and he was also almost invisible down the stretch. On what planet does a journeyman like Hollins become our only deep threat? Why did Coleman get so few targets? Why did Kincaid get ignored game after game? Where is our screen game? We tried one trick play this whole season and it back-fired against the Ravens. Where were the surprise plays that can be so successful? When did we last block a punt? When did we last have a successful fake punt? It’s constant mediocrity in coaching. Conservative to a flaw. Andy Reid did exactly what McVea did to us earlier this year and did exactly what he’s done to us in the playoffs the past five years: He out coached us. Plain and simple. Outcoached again and nothing will change next year. Trust the process, we’ll be good again but will continue to fall short. We need tons of additions to this roster. we need an edge rusher, a cornerback, a safety, more size on the d-line. We need a #1 WR and need to re-sign guys like Shakir. Do we extend Cook? Lots of decisions to make but in the long run, unless our coaching improves dramatically, especially at big parts of the game, we won’t see this team win a Super Bowl. What a shame to waste a generational talent at QB with this staff.