Something must have clicked in Joe Brady’s head at halftime of the Titans game the week before last. Down 10-7 to a bad Tennessee team it appears that Brady finally disbanded his “run on first down” scheme and allowed Josh to be Josh.
Earlier in the season I was very critical of Brady’s predictability. In the Ravens loss, against a defense that has given up the most passing yards in football, The Bills ran the ball on 19 of 24 !st down plays. Josh threw for a measly 180 yards (52 of which were on a phenomenal broken play throw to Shakir). The week before, Dak Prescott had tuned the Raven’s defense for 350 yards. A week later Joe Burrow threw for 392 against the Ravens. In the game before the Bills loss and in the four games since, the Ravens pass defense gave up an average of 334 yards per game. Instead of taking advantage of this porous pass defense Brady’s offense was inept.
The following week we saw the Bills run the ball 19/24 times on first down. On three of those runs they got good yardage (42 yards combined). But for those three runs the Bills averaged less than two yards per carry thus putting Josh in second and long situations time and time again.
The following week against the Jets Brady came out with a great game plan. Balancing the run/pass ratio the Bills put up 20 points against a good Jets defense. Josh was throwing the ball accurately in windy conditions. the offense scored touchdowns on three of their four first half drives. And the what happened? One possession yielded a FG. The rest were predictably brutal. First drive starts out with a big play pass to Samuel for 39 yards but the drive stalls and Bass misses a 47 yard FG. The next two drives are three and out. finally the Bills put together a drive and Bass kicks the game winning FG. A closer look at that last drive is needed though to get a real read on Brady’s predictability. On the five first down plays, Brady ran the ball all five times. In those five plays the Bills gained 8, 2, 3,-1, and 2 yards. 14 yards on five first down situations. Four of the five put Josh in second and long situations. But for a roughing the passer call against the Jets the Bills might have missed another FG.
Against the Titans, we saw almost the same thing in the first half. Runs on first down five of eight times. Seven points against a bad Titans team. Down 10-7 at half. And then it appears something clicked in Brady’s skull. In the second half we threw the ball on 8/13 first downs. After throwing for only 60 yards in the first half, Josh threw for 265 in the second half and led the Bills to three touchdowns and two FGs and 27 second half points. After the game I remarked that “maybe” Brady is starting to get it. When you are less predictable everything seems to work. Instead of first down runs in the ravens game (averaged 2.3 yards per carry) the first down runs in the second half against the Titans averaged almost five yards. When the defense is worried you might throw the ball, your run game becomes more effective and vice-a-versa. The big question looming before Sunday’s tilt against the Seahawks was which Joe Brady is showing up?
Right off the bat Brady’s first call was a deep pass completed to Dawson Knox. After some brutal penalties and a sack, the Bills moved the ball and scored. The rest of the game was very similar. A ton of passes on first down opened up the run game. On the first drive the Bills threw the ball on first down four times with gains of 23, 9, 7 and 25 yards. When they ran the ball on first down they had gains of 8, 10 and 11yards.
Up 14-3 at the half I was worried that “Predictable Joe” would return like he did in the Jets and Titans wins and the Texans and Ravens losses. Instead, Brady picked up on what had been successful and continued to throw on first down. First down completions of 15 yards to Coleman and 35 yards to Shakir led to a FG. The next drive was a ix of runs and passes leading to a two yard TD run by Cook. On the next drive the Bills had a 27 yard pass to Knox and a Defensive pass interference penalty on two of their first down plays. Another TD. By then it was wind the clock down in a 31-10 blowout.
Brady has shown an ability over the past three weeks to use a pass/run mix on first down to keep defenses honest and allow Josh to be Josh. It’s not a coincidence that the last three games Josh has been terrific. When you are consistently faced with second and long situations every quarterback struggles. By throwing the ball more on first down, the Bills have become less predictable and more successful. Lets hope it continues against the Fins on Sunday at home.
Go Bills.