Let’s start with the similarities. Both have had terrible seasons. Both were rewarded with lottery picks. Tampa was able to get Steven Stamkos (1st pick of draft in 2008) and Victor Hedman (2nd pick in 2009). Both have turned out to be two of the best players in the NHL. Conversely, Buffalo has had three top two picks and Jack Eichel (2nd in 2015), Sam Reinhardt (2nd in 2014) and Rasmussen Dahlin (1st in 2018) seem on the track to be stars in this league (at least Eichel and Dahlin should be) if they stay on their present track. Other than the ages of the players, what is the reason that Tampa is #1 in the league and the Sabres are tracking to be terrible again?
That’s where the difference in these teams become apparent. It’s the non-lottery guys. The non-first rounders that make the difference. We were sold a bag of goods that tanking would get us the players we need to become great. Tanking got us a couple of great players but we still suck. Tanking is great of you know how to draft and find talent outside the lottery picks. Anyone could have picked Eichel and Dahlin. Arguably, a good GM would have seen the upside of a 6’3” 220 lb center who can fly (Leon Draisaitl) over a smaller, slower, crafty guy (Reinhardt). We’d be better had we drafted Leon over Sam. We still wouldn’t be good because we continue to miss on our non lottery guys.
Tampa is a perfect case of drafting and scouting well. They have absolute stars who weren’t lottery picks. Just look at the numbers. Nikita Kucherov, picked in the second round, leads the NHL in scoring with 117 points and has 35 goals. Brayden Point, a third round pick has 38 goals and 87 points. Tyler Johnson, an undrafter Free Agent has 28 goals. Alex Killors, a third rounder, has 16 goals. Yanni Gourde, another undrafted Free Agent has 20 Goals. That’s 137 goals this year from guys not only non-lottery picks but also not even first rounders.
Lets look at how the Sabres have fared outside of the first round with guys they drafted or picked up as undrafted free agents. Jason Pominville has 15 goals, Evan Rodrigues has 9, Larson has 6. See where I’m going here? The Sabres haven’t HIT on a non-first rounder since Ryan Miller in 1999. Part of that blame goes to Golisano/Quinn who eliminated scouts and went to video scouting to save money. Most of it goes to GMTM and Bott’s in their absolute inability to find talent outside of the no brainer lottery guys. Every good team finds the diamond in the rough. San Jose found Joe Pavelski in the 7th round. The Blackhawks found Panarin in the 4th. The Bruins found Brad Marchand in the 3rd, David Krejci in the 2nd, and David Pasternak in the middle of the first. Montreal found Benndan Gallagher (30 Goals)in the 5th. Detroit found Andreas Athansiou (28goals) in the 4th. Florida found Evgeni Dadanov (25 goals ) in the 4th. Carolina found Sebastian Aho in the 2nd. Pittsburgh found Jake Guentzel in the 4th . I could go on all day but I think you see my point. Every team except Buffalo finds these guys who not only contribute but who have become very good IMPACT players in the NHL. Conversely, we not only never HIT on non-lottery guys but we miss badly on our 1st rounders. Grigorenko, Zadorov, Armia, Pysyk, Kassian, Myers, Ennis, Persson, Zagrapan, Stafford, etc... All fair at best NHL players. Nylander and Mittlestedt are young and MAYBE will become good NHL players at best.
The problem with the Sabres is scouting and drafting. They are the ONLY NHL team without a European playing in their top six forwards. That is why we are where we are. Until we improve our scouting and drafting we will remain a bottom feeder team. Things need to change. We need to find the Euro who has high end talent who they need to take a chance on. Doing the same thing with the same results is the definition of insanity. The INSANITY must stop.