Ten games in and the team is 4-4-2. Two of the losses came against teams that were missing a good portion of their offense due to COVID 19 spread (Washington and NJ). Ten games in and their four highest paid players have 3 goals combined (Eichel-2, Hall-1, Skinner and Okposo-0). The Power play seems to be clicking at a top ten rate and the penalty kill is also doing well. 5 v 5 they are one of the worst teams in the NHL. Let’s take a look and see why.
The top two lines have some talent. Eichel, Hall, Reinhart, Olofsson, and to a lesser extent Stahl are top six guys in the NHL. Cozens has the talent to be there. Skinner SHOULD be there. Problem is that these guys don’t produce 5 v 5. Hall and Eichel and Olofsson and Reinhart are Power play superstars. Even strength they are brutal. Yes there have been a couple empty netters which effect their +/- and yes Eichel has been snakebit (3 posts in ten games and numerous opportunities missed which one would hope is temporary). In addition Hall, Stahl, Cozins and a whole bunch more are getting used to new teammates and MAYBE that’s an excuse for a part of the problem 5 v 5.
That said, we also need to look at the bottom 6 (or in this case bottom 8 since there is some movement between Taxi-squad/press box and lineup). Adams spent his offseason acquiring Hall and Stahl to fill two large gaps. He then added “role” players to fill in needs on the bottom two lines. If we can call Hall and Stahl successful acquisitions then we have to call Sheahan, Eakin and Irwin flops. Sheahan and Eakin have a COMBINED 8 shots on goal in ten games. Okposo has ONE shot on goal in five. Mittelstadt, Thompson, Asplund have a combined 8 shots (all by Thompson). Other than Reider who has three goals and 16 shots and Curtis Lazar (acquired by Botterill) the players Adams has acquired/kept as bottom six guys are wholly deficient.
This leads us to Skinner. He has ONE point in 10 games yet has produced 24 SOG in that time frame (4th most of all forwards). Two years ago, the ONLY TIME IN HIS CAREER THAT HE PLAYED WITH A RIGHT HANDED CENTER, he scored 40 goals and was given a $9M contract. Coming off this great season playing with Eichel and after being rewarded with a huge contract, what does the new coach Krueger do? He demotes his to second line with a left handed winger who was forced to play center because they had no one else to do it (Marcus Johansson). Boom!!! We take a 40 goal guy and make him into a 14 goal guy. Krueger went the entire 2019-20 season having goal scoring issues and refusing to reunite Skinner with Eichel. The fact that Skinner has 24 shots and is only a -1 clearly shows he is working hard. The mere fact that he has 24 shots playing with the guys he’s been forced to play with says tons. Why other than absolute stubbornness would a coach refuse to try, for more than a shift here and there, putting two guys who had that much chemistry back together? Eichel, Skinner and Reinhart were VERY GOOD two years ago 5 v 5. Hall, Olofsson and Stahl make a nice second line. Lazar, Cozins and Reider at least give you something as a third line. Yes the fourth line sucks offensively but they can be a decent penalty kill/checking line until the younger guys develop.
This now gets us to defense. Risto is playing great as is McCabe. Miller, Montour and Irwin are defensive liabilities who don’t give much offense either. Jokiharju is a good young D who gets better every game. Which leads us to the wonderkid Dahlin. The 1st pick of the draft, the generational talent. On the PP he loks great. In 5 v 5 he looks lost at times. What has happened to this kid during Krueger’s one plus years coaching him? As a rookie he made less mistakes than he’s making now. Plain and simple the kid has regressed with Krueger as coach. Let’s looks a the other young guys: Mittelstadt, asplund Thompson, all have regressed. Why? Good coaches make young talented players better not worse. Benching Dahlin the other night for the whole third period is not what a young kid needs. He needs to be able to play his game. Yes there will be defensive lapses but that will change. I remember Paul Coffey being a defensive liability for years but his offense was so good it made up for it. Krueger need to let the kid play.
I’m not sold on Adams or Krueger. The Hall and Stahl moves were one year deals. Maybe we can get something for them at the trade deadline if we are out of the playoff running by then. Signing Girgenson to a three year deal, acquiring AHL talents like Eakin, Irwin and Sheahan does nothing but perpetuate losing. Last week Jack Roslovic, a young, talented Center who was stuck in a role-playing position due to Winnipeg’s talent in front of him, and who had held out of camp as a RFA was traded as part of the Laine deal. Roslovic ended up signing a two year $3.8M contract which is LESS than what the Sabres are paying Girgenson. He’s a young, talented center, exactly what the Sabres need. Why not offer-sheet him? Why not try to trade for him after he’d requested a trade back in December? He’s guy that you could play Cozins with and eventually have as your second line center. We still have no second line center in the system (unless Cozins can eventually get there). We need speed and talent. Send guys like Okposo to Rochester. He is terrible. Let guys like Will Borgan have a chance instead of playing retreads like Irwin. This season should be about building for the future.