1. Those of you that have followed this blog over the past seven years are aware that I’ve long been a critique of Sean McDermott’s “in-game” coaching abilities. From “13 Seconds” to duplicating that blunder the following year against the same team (For those of you that don’t remember, during the regular season after the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the infamous 13 second game, the Bills again faced the Chiefs. At the end of the first half the Bills scored and kicked off to the Chiefs who got the ball at their own 27 yard line with 12 seconds left in the half. Instead of learning from their mistakes from the previous “13 second” debacle, the Bills allowed the Chiefs to gain 30 yards in two plays and kick a FG to end the half). From the misuse of Time Outs to bad play-clock management, I have constantly pointed out McDermott’s failures as an “in-game” coach. Yesterday, however, Sean took it to a new level.
With the ball on their own three yard line with 32 seconds left in the game, and with the Texans having all three of their time outs left as well as having one of the best field goal kickers in the league, the Bills NEEDED to run out the clock, or at least force the Texans to use all of their three time outs. In this situation, the first down call was the most important. Any play that stopped the clock would allow the Texans to have at least one time out should the Bills not get a first down and should the Texans get the ball back. An incomplete pass or a run out of bounds was EVERYTHING the Texans needed. Faced with this situation and with a QB who’d averaged 13.5 yards per carry during the game, McDermott/Brady called up an extremely difficult to connect on pass play up the sideline. Of course it was incomplete. That throw, even on Josh’s best days (which yesterday clearly was not and which I’ll address later), is a 50% completion rate. Throwing that pass on first down and having it fall incomplete forced the Bills to pass on the next two downs since, barring a first down, the Texans would get the ball back with at least one time out left. We saw how that transpired.
My criticism here is that the Bills shouldn’t have run a play that had ANY CHANCE of stopping the clock on first down. A first down run MAY have picked up yardage. Maybe Josh could have scrambled for a first down. Maybe Cook gains a few yards and we are then in a second and six or seven. In either of those situations the Texans are forced to call time out. This gives the Bills the ability to run the ball two more times. Maybe we get a first down. Worst case scenario, we give the ball back to the Texans with 6 or 7 seconds left, at their own 40, with no way to stop the clock save for a completed sideline pass. Instead, the Bills call an extremely difficult throw to a rookie wide receiver who has shown a couple of flashes (as well as a few brutal plays such as the ball that Josh threw and hit him in the back of his head because he was clueless on the route) which falls incomplete.
Now on second down and ten from their own three the Bills needed to get a first down on one of their next two plays. You have a running back who can be electric catching the ball out of the backfield. You have a tight end who should be able to get open somewhere in the middle of the field for some yardage. A quick slant or a pass to a WR who sits down in a zone defense is the call here. If nobody is open you let Josh run. We need a first down. Instead, the Bills brain trust, and I use that term very loosely, has Josh throw a 40 yard bomb to Mack Hollins which, as anyone who watched the Bills passing game yesterday could predict, fell incomplete. WTF!!!! There was no reason whatsoever to throw a deep ball there. We needed yards. we needed a first down. We had no timeouts left so even if it was completed there wouldn’t be enough time left to do anything. A safe, short pass or a scramble or a second down run was the call there.
On third down, the Bills brain trust, knowing they needed ten yards to keep the ball away from Fairburn’s lethal leg, decided to do what any good team would do: Let’s throw the ball to a guy who has two receptions ALL FUCKING YEAR, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Predictably, the ball was thrown in an area that a quality WR makes that catch. MVS had both hands on the ball and allowed it to be stripped away by the cornerback. Putting the game in the hands of a guy who has a history of dropping the football and who had caught just two passes in almost five full games was just plain stupidity at it best.
We all saw what transpired after that. We punt, they gain five yards on first down and call timeout. If you noticed, our two safety’s were lined up 25 yards downfield on this play as if they were thinking the Texans might throw deep. What idiot would have a defense do that KNOWING that the Texans only needed four or five yards to be in Fairburn’s reach? I guess I already answered that question earlier. Of course Fairburn kicks a 59 yard FG and we lose. Just Coaching Malpractice!!!
Another situation which drove me crazy yesterday and which I have not seen written upon was earlier in the fourth quarter when the Bills sacked Stroud and forced a turnover. We had the ball at the Texans 15 yard line. Josh had come out of the game the previous series and was in the Blue tent being examined. The Bills put in Mitch Trubisky at QB. EVERY SINGLE PERSON watching this game knew that the Bills would run the ball on first down. Before the snap, Josh comes running out of the tent with his helmet in hand ready to resume playing. Instead of calling a time out, which he had time to do, McDermott allows Trubisky to hand the ball off to Cook who gets smothered for no gain. Why not call time out there and allow your all-world quarterback the opportunity to succeed? Instead, he comes back into the game facing a second and long situation and throws consecutive incompletions. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. After the second down incompletion, and facing a third and ten from the Texans 15 yard line MCDERMOTT CALLED A FUCKING TIME OUT!!! Sure could have used that TO when the Texans were driving late in the game.
Game in and game out McDermott chokes in late game situations. Game in and game out we get outcoached in critical situations. “13 Seconds” wasn’t an anomaly, rather, it’s what we’ve come to expect from this head coach. From time out usage to inconsistency in play calling (Just last week I pointed out three situations where McDermott made drastically inconsistent fourth down calls against the Ravens) to when to challenge a play on the field, McDermott has shown time and time again to not be up to the moment.
2. Joe Brady: again, in the past I’ve been very critical of Brady, especially as it relates to predictability. Last year, after a win against the Steelers, I pointed out that in the previous ten times the Bills had had the ball with a first down inside the opponent’s ten yard line, he’d called a run nine of those ten times. I pointed out how, in last year’s playoff loss to the Chiefs that Cook had run the ball three times for minus seven yards in the second half, and faced with a first and ten at the Chiefs 27 yard line with 2:42 left in the game he ran Cook on first down for no gain, thus putting Josh in a second and long situation-we saw how that ended. The first three games of this year, however, I’d tempered my criticism of Brady. But for some ultra conservative play calling near the end of the Cardinals game, Brady’s play calling had been terrific. We all marveled at the “New Josh”, the guy who didn’t need to play hero ball. The guy who now took what defenses were giving him. at 3-0, Josh was the AFC Offensive player of the month.
Last week, however, the old predictable Brady reared his ugly head. Faced with a team that was 31st in the league against the pass he couldn’t come up with a game plan to effectively attack a clear weakness. Just look at yesterday, for example, if you want to see what good offenses do to the Ravens porous defense. Joe Burrow and the Bengals were able to throw for 392 yards and five touchdowns. The week before the Bills played the ravens, Dak Prescott threw for 379 yards and two TDs. Last week Josh was held to 180 yards, 52 of which was on a broken play bomb to Shakir. Yesterday, against a fair Texan defense, Brady needed to dial up something special, especially without Shakir. This was his opportunity to get the ball to Samuel and MVS, two newly acquired free agents. It was an opportunity to use Dalton Kincaid or Dawson Knox (did he even play yesterday???) in the offense. It was an opportunity to get the ball to Cook or Davis out of the backfield. Instead his gameplan was predictable as usual. Of the Bills 24 first own plays they ran the ball 19 times. Three times they had good gains(Cook for 12 and 11 yards and Johnson for 19). But for those few aberrations, however, the first down play calling was brutal. Cook ran the ball eleven times on first down for 43 yards, two of which gained 23 yards. That means that in the nine other first down carries Cook gained 20 yards, barely a two yard per carry average. Johnson ran the ball three times: once for 19 yards and the other two times for minus four. Brady dialed up his usually predictable Curtis Samuel run for no gain. The predictability of his calls through out the game was apparent to any knowledgeable football fan.
In addition, when he dis call a pass play, the calls were for extremely difficult throws, especially since Josh was facing a very heavy pass rush. Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice on twitter) documented that Josh was pressured on 16 drop-backs yesterday resulting in one completion for 24 yards. In addition, the windows that Josh was forced to throw into were extremely similar to what we saw last week against the Ravens. Don’t get me wrong here. Josh was not good yesterday. He missed Hollins and Kincaid for what should have been long touchdown passes. He overthrew both passes when we had the ball on the Texans 15 yard line late in the game. He forced a couple of throws that should have been intercepted. That said, where were the play calls for a quick slant (oops, the one bounced off Coleman’s helmet)? Where were the easy releases to Cook out of the backfield? Cook had two receptions for 17 yards. Why wasn’t he used more, especially given Josh’s inconsistency yesterday? We completed FOUR, yes FOUR passes to wide receiver all game, one of which was the usually reliable no gain to Curtis Samuel. Last week against a brutally terrible Ravens defense we connected on a mere ten passes to a Wide Receiver. Earlier in the year we saw Josh get the ball out of his hands quickly to open receiver who were able to generate significant yards after catch. Yesterday and last week, but for two plays (broken play to Shakir and corner back slip on Coleman’s 49 yard TD grab and run) we have been unable to get the wide receivers involved in the passing game.
This brings me to another point. Why is it that three years in a row (and not surprisingly after Dabol left) have the Bills been absolutely unable to figure out how to use free agent acquisitions who have had successful careers before they arrived in Buffalo? In 2022 we picked up Naheem Hines, a third down specialist who had made a career out of catching the ball out of the backfield. With us he caught five passes in nine games. Last year we picked up Deonte Harty and rent Sherfield, two veteran wide receivers to add speed, quickness and diversity to the offense. Both were terrible busts. This year it was Curtis Samuel and MVS that were added. Both had successful careers with previous organizations. Both were players that one would think would fit in well with our receiving group. Both have been useless. The consistent here is both McDermott and Brady have been here all three years.. Brady was Dorsey’s QB coach for 1 1/2 years before becoming OC. His inability to figure out how to use these guys in his offense speaks volumes.
3 Beane: For years I have been clamoring for the Bills to give Josh Allen the weapons he needs to win a championship. Year after year we draft defensive linemen, cornerbacks, tight ends and offensive linemen. At least we had Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis for Josh to throw to. With Both Diggs and Davis gone in the off season we needed to supplement the wide receivers with a number one guy. A guy who the other teams would have to strategize for. Someone that would take defenses out of their bubbles and cause mismatches. So what does Beane do? He picks up two guys (MVS and Samuel) who his Offensive Coordinator can’t figure out how to use, and trades down twice in the first round to draft a guy who may become a decent NFL receiver. Not a speed burner. Not a guy who anyone projects to be a true number one. Instead, we are left with an offense with a bunch of marginal guys who wouldn’t make many NFL team’s rosters, yet alone contribute. Mack Hollins? MVS? Shavers? You’ve got to be kidding me. You have an all world QB who has no one, other than Shakir, who regularly gets open. We will be in the same place next year. We will be drafting late in the first round thus lessening the chance of getting a true #1. Wide receiver is the second highest paid position in the NFL. If you can draft a #1 in the first round you have him on a rookie contract for five years. The difference between what the Giants are paying Nabors and what the Vikings are paying Jefferson is almost $25 million/year for five years. That’s $125 million that can be used to sign linemen, cornerbacks and depth guys. Last year’s draft had three can’t miss guys. Yes we would have had to give up future draft capital to trade up for one of those guys but the draft picks they would have lost could easily have been compensated for in free agency. Even trading up for Brian Thomas, Jr. would have been better. He could very easily be a star in this league We have a great young quarterback who we continue to neglect. I continue to believe that Beane takes his marching orders from McDermott when it comes to roster. McDermott has shown his conservatism which is reflective of the refusal to get Josh more weapons. Remember, this is the same group that drafter Singletary, Moss and Cook in successive drafts. Two of the three have thrived since they left and we got nothing for them.
4. The Bills offense is a mess. Brady needs to figure things out and figure it out fast. When you can’t score against a terrible Ravens defense and then follow it u with yesterday’s debacle. As for McDermott, how many games have we lost in the past four years on the game’s last play? Last year it was Denver, Patriots, Eagles and Jets (and could have been the Giants). This doesn’t include the brutal end of the Chief’s playoff game. The year before it was the Vikings and Jets. There is a reason for this and it all starts at the top.